New article: Assessment of uncertainties in a complex modeling chain for predicting reservoir sedimentation under changing climate
A paper related to Dirt-X has been published: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40808-023-01705-6. It is titled “Assessment of uncertainties in a complex modeling chain for predicting reservoir sedimentation under changing climate” and the authors are María Herminia Pesci, Kilian Mouris, Stefan Haun and Kristian Förster.
The Leibniz University of Hannover together with the University of Stuttgart assessed the uncertainties that arise when applying a complex modeling chain for predicting reservoir sedimentation under changing climate. The modeling chain consists of the water balance model WaSiM, the soil erosion and sediment transport model combination RUSLE-SEDD and the 3d hydro-morphodynamic reservoir model SSIIM2. In order to assess the propagation of uncertainties throughout the modeling chain, approximate model parameter uncertainties were quantified and compared to the uncertainties originating from climate models, which were represented by the spread of the climate projections (considering 3 GCM and 3 RCM). The results show that the model parameter uncertainties are much smaller than the spread of climate projections and are important not only for DIRT-X, but also for other modelers who would like to communicate different sources of uncertainty in complex modeling chains, including climate impact models,
Presentations and conferences
- Bartosova A, Arheimer B, de Lavenne A, Capell R, and Strömqvist J, 2021. Assessing robustness of large-scale hydrological and sediment modeling using nested domains under current and changing climate. Oral presentation at The XIth Scientific Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS 2022), 29 May to 3 June 2022, Montpellier (France).
- Bartosova A, Brendel C, et al., 2022. Advancing large scale hydrological and sediment modeling for hydropower industry operations. Oral presentation at HYDRO 2022, 25-27 April 2022, Strasbourg, France.
- Bartosova A, Arheimer B, de Lavenne A, Capell R, and Strömqvist J, 2021. Assessing uncertainty in large-scale hydrological and sediment modelling using nested domains under current and changing climate. Oral presentation at The 24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2021), 5-9 December 2021, Sydney, Australia, (Online).
- Bartosova A, Arheimer B, de Lavenne A, Capell R, and Strömqvist J, 2021. Are large scale models useful? A case of nested model domains for assessing current and future stream runoff and sediments. Presented at The EGU General Assembly, 19-30 April 2021, (Online).
- Bartosova A, de Lavenne A, Mussuza J, Strömqvist J, and Arheimer B (2019) Exploring global sediment sources, processes, and impacts with a global dynamic model. Poster at International Interdisciplinary Conference on Land Use and Water Quality Conference, Aarhus, Denmark, 3-6 June 2019.
- de Lavenne A., Bartosova, Strömqvist J., Arheimer B (2020). Accounting for discharge simulation performances and observation quality for modelling sediment at global scale. Poster presentation at European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 4-8 May 2020.
- de Lavenne A, Bartosova A, Strömqvist J, Lindström G, Musuuza J, and Arheimer B (2019) Global drivers of sediment fluxes. Poster at The 27th IUGG General Assembly, Montreal, Canada, 8-18 July, 2019.
- de Lavenne A, Musuuza J, Bartosova A, and Arheimer B (2019) From annual to daily sediment fluxes modelling at global scale. Poster at European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 7-12 April 2019.
- Mouris, K., Schwindt, S., Haun, S., Pesci, M. H., Förster, K., Rüther, N., Schwarzwälder, K., and Wieprecht, S.: Climate reanalysis data with global coverage enable sediment load prediction in the absence of systematic field data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8432, 2021, CO Meeting Organizer EGU21 (copernicus.org).
- Pesci, M. H., Mouris, K., Bosshard, T., and Förster, K.: How do changes in model parameters compare to climate change impacts signals? A case study of a modeling chain to predict reservoir inflow and sedimentation processes in the Devoll Catchment (Albania), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8002, 2022, CO Meeting Organizer EGU22 (copernicus.org).
Invited presentations
- Bartosova A, 2020. Large scale modeling under changing climate and socioeconomics. Roorkee Water Conclave, Roorkee, India, 26-28 February 2020.
- Bartosova A, 2022. Understanding the interplay between sediment regime and water management structures at a large scale. The 2nd Roorkee Water Conclave, 2-4 March 2022, Roorkee, India (Online).
- Bartosova A, 2022. Evaluating sediment Delivery Impacts on Reservoirs in changing climaTe and society aCROSS scales – DIRT-X overview. Banja workshop, 28-29 March, 2022 (Online).
Introducing seasonal snow memory into the RUSLE
The University of Stuttgart have incorporated seasonal snow memory into the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and combined it with the SEdiment Delivery Distributed (SEDD) model in a recent scientific publication. The inclusion of snow-related processes, especially the separation of non-erosive snowfall from erosive snowmelt, was found to greatly enhance model accuracy. These results represent a major improvement for estimating suspended sediment loads, especially in data-sparse regions, further enhanced by the use of freely available satellite imagery and climate reanalysis datasets. These results are important for DIRT-X applications as long-term predictions of bathymetric change, necessary when modeling climate change scenarios, will require an objective calculation procedure for the sediment load as a function of a catchment’s specific characteristics and hydroclimatic features.
Read more: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11368-022-03192-1
DIRT-X field excursion 2022
Before the GA in the end of June we participated in a field excursion.
Our first stop, after an amazing boat ride, was at NTNU’s Sletvik biological field station where we learned about their teaching/research in the bay of Hopavågen with special hydrological features due to its narrow inlet from the sea. Read more about Sletvik here.
Our second stop was at Follsjoe Dam, operated by Statkraft. We learned about new construction work being carried out to bolster the dam according to new regulations. Dams in Norway are reviewed every 15 years and checked for compliance with current regulations. This dam is special due to the chosen method for bolstering the dam (riprap), which is human-placed rock material to protect the dam against erosional processes. Check out the cool pictures below!
Downstream of the dam, a hydraulic structure has been added to prevent wild salmon from entering the river, to control for parasitic infestation.
Our last stop was to see a sediment trapping basin, reducing sedimentation of the reservoir located further downstream. At the photos below you can see basin.
Stay tuned for a post from the GA!
DIRT-X Hybrid General Assembly
The Dirt-X General Assembly will be held June 29-30th, 2022 in Trondheim. It is a Hybrid meeting which means that there will also be participants joining the meeting online. All the work packages are represented in the agenda and there will be a number of topics presented and discussed.
The general focus of the meeting is to:
1. Improved understanding of catchment processes and their interactions with reservoir processes and economics/energy.
2. Climate impact indicators (CIIs) useful to our stakeholders as well as different sectors.
3. Reporting our achievements, coordination among WPs and planning future work.
The day before the General Assembly, on June 28th, there will be a field trip organized by NTNU.
Stay tuned for an update from the meeting and some photos!
Large-Scale Hydrological and Sediment Modeling in Nested Domains under Current and Changing Climate
SMHI investigated how well can large scale models predict runoff and sediment concentrations in a recent scientific publication. The comparison of historical simulations for three nested model domains (global, continental, and national) found that simulated sediment concentrations varied considerably among the nested models in spatial patterns, whereas runoff values were more similar. For indicators of future change, variables that were calibrated directly provided more consistent message than those derived from other model outputs. These results are important for DIRT-X applications as the cross-scale analyses give a better understanding and quantification of impacts and uncertainties in climate impact assessments.
Read more: https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/%28ASCE%29HE.1943-5584.0002078